Economics3 articles

July 24, 2026

Imagine two engineering teams with the same size, the same roles, and the same AI budget. A year later, one has cut delivery time by 40 percent; the other has a very impressive token dashboard. Most enterprise budgets would fund them identically next year, because technology budgeting is built around access and fairness. That model works for software licenses and breaks down with AI, because AI is productive capacity whose value depends on where it is applied. Give everyone baseline access, then manage the rest like an investment portfolio: measure outcomes at the team level and move capacity toward the teams that turn it into revenue.

July 24, 2026

There is a planning meeting most executives have never sat in, where nobody brings a hiring plan and the only question is how much speed leadership wants to fund. Growth has always been throttled by headcount, and AI maturity decides when that stops. As organizations move from individual productivity to coordinated workflows to autonomous execution, execution capacity comes loose from headcount, investment replaces talent as the limit, and AI spending becomes a growth dial that belongs to the CEO.

June 30, 2026

In Douglas Adams' The Restaurant at the End of the Universe, a crashed ship of useless middle-managers declares leaves to be legal tender, gets immensely rich, and then has to burn down the forests to fight the inflation that follows. The joke is also a fairly accurate description of how money works. Plant too many trees through quantitative easing and stimulus, and eventually you have to burn some by hiking interest rates so the rest of the currency is still worth something.

© 2026 ABWaters. Thinking out loud.